This is a rare public post:
Our website members will be aware of the methodology that has allowed us to grow our NAV over the last couple of years whilst stock markets have gone nowhere, crypto has crashed and precious metals have been mediocre (let’s not even talk about the miners). This post aims to spread some awareness about the importance of eliminating ALL bias. This applies to Bitcoin just as much as anything else. I posted a chart on ‘X’ which attracted a lot of derision/laughter/mocking…
If your first reaction is ‘that’s ridiculous’ or ‘this guy is a clown and has no clue’, I’d ask that you give me a few minutes of your time and an open mind.
My credentials are here…
Right, first things first, how can you eliminate bias and make an objective assessment? Three words…WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE. Forget the narratives and theories. Focus on facts. At the end of the day, the only fact that matters is price. What the market decides. My opinion doesn’t matter. Neither does yours. The sum total of all market participants trading decisions (not their stated views) is what carves out the price chart. If Bitcoins purchasing power falls by 70% or more, it does matter. We can draw support & resistance lines, but they MUST be backed up by evience that is not a matter of opinion. This video shows how.
So where does all of that leave us? Well, it suggests caution is appropriate. Combined with charts that track the performance of Bitcoin versus stock markets, gold, silver, uranium, inflation and money supply we now know that we were correct to invest elsewhere during the past 2 years, because we’ve grown our NAV substantially instead of seeing it fall by 50% or more like Bitcoin. We also know that Bitcoin has more work to do to start outperforming things like the uranium miners for example. We always want to be riding the winning horse and this sort of analysis tells us when to jump from one to another based on evidence rather than narratives.
I hope that the non-members who read this are able to appreciate this evidence based approach and understand why it’s better than just faith and hope or following the analysis of someone who does not have a background in the very niche discipline of scientific forecasting. Wishing you all the very best.
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