Is drop over $100…

It may not happen of course, but now we’ve had the breakout from the ‘arc exit handle’ AND arc completion, precisely as we forecast for members here many months ago (and indeed years ago – see video below) , we have to ask ourselves …’what next ?’

In answering that question, we need to attempt to weigh up the balance of probabilities and identify the most likely scenario, whilst acknowleding other, less likely (but perfectly possible outcomes).

Scenario #1 (10% or less) – Gold price turns down here and fails to make new all-time highs until after the 8-year cycle low in 2024.

Scenario #2 (30%) – Gold price falls no lower than the 12-month moving average (currently $1836 and rising), perhaps even holding above that volume node in the $1920-$1940 region). In this scenario, we break above all-time highs and this becomes a support level which isn’t broken (or at least tested) until the 8-year cycle low.

Scenario #3 (50%) – Gold price pulls back to that spot I’ve highlighted on the chart where the rising 3-year moving average intersects horizontal support at approximately $1825. In doing so, it would backtest the breakout from the ‘arc exit handle’ AND form a bullish, decsending wedge and handle of this most recent arc which has formed over the last couple of years. That would be an incredibly bullish set-up to launch from.

Scenario #4 (10% or less) – There are a number of variations on these 3 main ‘roadmaps’ which (if valid) will emerge in coming weeks, along with a number of more ‘extreme’ outcomes which, again, would become clear if they become a stronger possibility.

Here’s a reminder of how we saw things developing all the way back in 2019…

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